2023 Hurricane Season Outlook

This year’s Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity forecasts are now available, and indications are a mixed bag. The good news is we may finally bid farewell to the La Niña pattern we’ve experienced over the last couple of years, but the bad news is that, although forecasters predict a less active season, Florida remains at an elevated risk for land-falling systems, compared to other parts of the country.

What to Expect for the 2023 Hurricane Season

Colorado State University’s forecast is projecting we’ll see 13 named storms, placing this year near the historical average of 14. Forecasts from North Carolina State University concur, indicating between 11 to 15 named storms in the Atlantic basin.

Among those storms, Colorado State predicts six will be hurricanes, with two becoming major hurricanes. North Carolina State expects a similar range of six to eight hurricanes, two to three of which will be major.

What Effect Does El Niño Have on Hurricane Predictions?

NOAA has issued an El Niño watch, pegging the probability the pattern will develop between May and July at 62 percent. Generally, the emergence of an El Niño pattern kicks off a less active hurricane season, as trade winds in the Atlantic become quicker and less hospitable to the formation of developing tropical storms. However, only time will tell as to how strong the El Niño will pattern will be. And as history has shown, intense hurricanes are still possible during an El Niño year, even late in the season.

How Many Hurricanes Could Florida See?

Despite predictions of an average to below-average number of storms this year, Floridians won’t be able to let their guard down. Forecasters for AccuWeather believe the highest chance for direct impacts remains in Florida following an analysis of past years with weather patterns similar to 2023’s forecast and current conditions. They also point to warmer than average water in the Gulf of Mexico and off the coast of the Southeast U.S., which can rapidly intensify a storm. Additionally, an area of high pressure over the Atlantic, known as the Bermuda Azores High, has the potential to steer storms toward the United States.

The Bottom Line: Prepare Now

The official start of hurricane season, June 1, is just weeks away, meaning now is the time to begin your preparations. If your trees haven’t recently been inspected by a certified arborist to ensure there are no structural or health issues that could pose a risk to people or property, work with your landscape partner to get one scheduled right away. Your landscape partner can also help put in place a plan for safeguarding important elements of your exteriors — such as prepping your irrigation system and securing or removing elements like outdoor furniture or rocks that could become dangerous once airborne. Finally, you’ll want to be sure you’ve pre-authorized post-storm clean-up efforts with your landscape partner so there’s no delay in restoring safety to your property in the event of the worst.

If you need a landscape partner you can trust to help you get ready for hurricane season, we’ve got you covered. Get in touch here.